Windsurfing, kitesurfing and wingfoil riders (individuals): the wind call, at your height

For each session, you decide whether to go out and which kite, wing, or sail size to use. This decision is based on the mean wind, gust spread, and wind direction at your chosen spot. You typically check the wind multiple times in the 24 hours leading up to a session.

Making the wrong call can mean a wasted drive to the coast. If the wind is too strong for your gear, or if it is offshore and you are not experienced in those conditions, you might pack up before even getting on the water. This can lead to a no-show session, which is a common outcome of misjudging conditions.

Your personal skill level and the wind range of your equipment set your limits. For example, a learner kitesurfer might find 12 to 20 knots to be their comfortable range. The instrument helps you make informed choices, but the final decision to launch is always yours, based on your experience and the conditions you observe. It provides the data, but you make the ultimate call.

The instrument shows wind at standard heights of 10, 80, 120, and 180 metres. For your activity, the 10-metre height is typically the most relevant, as it aligns with standard forecast heights and is close to the surface or rig height. The instrument interpolates wind to your specific working height, which you can set in metres.

It displays gusts alongside the mean wind. This distinction is important for choosing the right equipment; a 9-metre kite might be suitable for the mean wind, but if the gusts are significantly higher, it could be too much for your skill level or equipment. You can set your own limit for both mean wind and gust speed, expressed in knots.

Your limit is what you input into the instrument. This limit is based on your equipment's wind range and your personal skill. For instance, a 5 m2 wing might have a limit of 10-25 knots, or a 6 m2 wing 8-18 knots, depending on the conditions you prefer to ride in. These limits are specific to your gear and how you ride.

The instrument provides the probability (P) that the wind will be above your set limit for each hour. This is calculated from a fraction of ensemble members at 10, 80, 100, and 120 metres. It helps you understand the likelihood of conditions exceeding your comfortable operating range.

For example, if the P(above your limit) is around 20 per cent for a given hour, you might still consider going out, but with caution, perhaps choosing a smaller kite or wing. If it is 50 per cent, you might opt for a different spot or delay your session. If it is 80 per cent, you would likely decide against going out, as the chance of being overpowered is high, potentially leading to a difficult or unmanageable session.

The Agreement Spine shows where different weather models agree or disagree on the forecast. When models largely agree, you can have more confidence in the forecast. If there is significant disagreement, it suggests higher uncertainty, which might lead you to be more conservative with your session planning. This feature is distinct from the P(above your limit) calculation, which focuses on the probability of exceeding your personal limit.

This is an example of how you might use the instrument for a session:

• 8:00: You check the forecast for your spot. The instrument shows a 20 per cent chance of the wind exceeding your 20-knot limit for your 9-metre kite at 3 pm. The mean wind is forecast at 15 knots, with gusts to 22 knots. You decide to pack your 9-metre kite.
• 11:00: A quick check shows the P(above your limit) has risen to 40 per cent for 3 pm. The mean wind is now forecast at 18 knots, with gusts to 26 knots. You consider bringing your 7-metre kite as well, just in case.
• 14:00: On arrival at the spot, the P(above your limit) is 60 per cent. The instrument shows a mean wind of 20 knots and gusts to 28 knots. You observe the conditions and decide to rig your 7-metre kite.
• 16:00: While on the water, you notice the wind feels stronger than forecast. You decide to head in early to avoid being overpowered.
• 17:00: After your session, you review the recorded forecast and the actual observed wind. The instrument shows the mean wind was 22 knots with gusts to 30 knots, confirming your decision to use the smaller kite was appropriate for the conditions and your early exit was prudent.

Your personal limit for wind speed is determined by your equipment's wind range and your skill level. For instance, a learner kitesurfer might operate within a mean wind range of 12 to 20 knots. This range is your 'document' for setting limits. You input this specific limit into the instrument, and it uses this figure to calculate the P(above your limit).

The instrument is preset to a marine persona at a 10-metre height, with limits in knots for mean wind and gust, which aligns well with how you typically assess conditions. You can adjust this height to your specific working height if needed, and the instrument will interpolate the wind data for you.

It is important to remember that these limits are personal. While a 12 to 20 knot mean wind might be suitable for a beginner, an experienced rider might comfortably handle higher winds or use different kite sizes, such as a 3 m2 wing in 20 to 45 knots. The instrument supports your individual choices by allowing you to define your own thresholds for both mean wind and gust speeds, tailoring the forecast to your specific needs and gear.

The instrument keeps a dated record page of what was forecast, what was observed, the limit you used, and the call you made for each session. This record is a useful tool for reviewing past decisions and learning from them, helping you to refine your understanding of how forecasts translate to actual conditions at your chosen spot.

For example, if you consistently find yourself overpowered when the P(above your limit) was 40 per cent, you might adjust your personal threshold for future sessions or consider using different equipment in similar conditions. This retrospective analysis helps you improve your decision-making process over time, making your session planning more effective and reducing the chance of a wasted trip.

The record can also be valuable for informal discussions within spot groups or clubs, allowing you to share experiences and compare forecasts with actual conditions. It provides a factual basis for understanding how your choices align with the real-world wind, helping you to improve your session planning and equipment selection for future outings. This historical data is a practical way to build your experience and knowledge.

Ireland's Atlantic exposure means it experiences significant wind conditions, particularly during the storm season from October to March. This seasonality influences when and where you might choose to ride, with many riders adapting their activities to the prevailing weather patterns.

Met Éireann, the national forecaster, provides general weather information, but the instrument offers site-specific wind data tailored to your activity. Understanding the local conditions, including mean wind, gusts, and direction, is key for making informed decisions about your sessions. This detailed information allows you to assess the suitability of a spot for your skill level and equipment.

While there are various informal spot groups and clubs across Ireland, your decision to go out is always a personal one, based on your skill and equipment. The instrument provides detailed wind information to help you make those individual choices, considering the dynamic nature of Irish coastal weather. It gives you the specific data you need to plan your sessions effectively, whether you are a beginner or an experienced rider.