Windsurf, kitesurf and wingfoil schools and instructors: the wind call, at your height

As a school owner or head instructor, you make daily decisions during the season on whether to run, delay, or cancel lessons and rentals. These decisions are often made days in advance, as you need to inform customers by the evening before their scheduled activity. This proactive approach is essential for managing expectations and ensuring smooth operations.

Making the correct call is essential. Cancelling a lesson day means losing that day's bookings. However, running a lesson when conditions are beyond your limits can put students at risk of being overpowered or blown offshore. Your decision impacts both your business and the well-being of your students, making accurate forecasting a priority.

This call is based on your school's policy and your judgement, often guided by insurer or governing body advice. The instrument helps you make these decisions by providing clear, understandable wind forecasts specific to your operating height and limits. This allows you to communicate a clear, data-backed reason to your customers for any cancellations or changes, fostering trust and understanding.

For windsurfing, kitesurfing, and wingfoiling lessons, the critical wind conditions are typically measured at the surface, which the instrument interpolates to your working height. You are interested in both the mean wind speed and the gusts, measured in knots, as well as the wind direction. These factors collectively determine the suitability of conditions for your students.

Your school will have specific limits for these conditions, often a recommended learner range, such as 12 to 20 knots, as cited by guides for wing foiling. These limits are set by your school's policy and instructor judgement, not by the instrument. The instrument allows you to input your specific operating height in metres and your wind speed limits in knots, tailoring the data to your exact needs.

It displays wind at 10, 80, 120, and 180 metres, interpolating to your chosen working height. Gusts are shown alongside the mean wind speed. This detail helps you assess if conditions are suitable for the skill level of your students, particularly when considering the impact of sudden strong gusts that could overpower a beginner.

The instrument provides the probability that the wind will be above your set limit for each hour. This P(above your limit) is calculated from an ensemble of weather models at 10, 80, 100, and 120 metres. It shows the fraction of these models that predict wind speeds exceeding your threshold, giving you a statistical insight into potential risks.

This is distinct from model agreement, which the Agreement Spine shows: where the models concur and where they diverge. For your work, understanding the odds helps you decide. If the odds are, for example, 20 per cent that the wind will exceed your limit, you might proceed with caution, perhaps scheduling a less experienced group for later in the day, or keeping a closer watch on conditions.

If the odds are 50 per cent, you might consider delaying lessons until conditions improve or re-evaluating the student's skill level. At 80 per cent odds, it is likely best to cancel, as the risk of exceeding your limits is high. These percentages are examples of how you might interpret the odds based on your school's risk tolerance and the cost of a wrong call.

Imagine it is 6 PM on a Tuesday, and you are planning for Wednesday's lessons. You open the instrument to check the forecast.

• 6:00 PM Tuesday: You check the forecast for Wednesday. Your limit is 18 knots mean wind. The forecast shows a P(above your limit) of 20 per cent for the morning, rising to 60 per cent by 2 PM. Gusts are forecast to be near your limit for beginner students all afternoon.
• 6:30 PM Tuesday: You decide to run morning lessons but will tell afternoon students there is a high chance of cancellation. You send out messages to all students, explaining the situation and confirming morning lessons.
• 7:00 AM Wednesday: You check the morning brief. The P(above your limit) for the morning is now 10 per cent, and the mean wind is well within limits. Gusts are still a concern for the afternoon, with P(above your limit) at 70 per cent.
• 11:00 AM Wednesday: You receive an alert that gusts are approaching your student limit. You monitor the live conditions and decide to bring the morning session to an early close, informing students about the deteriorating conditions.
• 12:00 PM Wednesday: You confirm the cancellation of all afternoon lessons due to the high probability of gusts exceeding suitable limits for learners, communicating this to the affected students with a clear explanation based on the forecast.

Your operating limits for wind speed and gusts are established by your school's policy and your instructor judgement. These limits are critical for student well-being and the smooth running of your operations. For example, a commonly cited recommended learner range for wing foiling is 12 to 20 knots. This range is a guideline, and your specific limits will come from your own operational documents.

You will input your specific limit into the instrument. It comes with a preset height of 10 metres, and you can adjust this to your specific working height. The instrument does not set your limits; it uses the limits you define from your own documents and experience. This ensures that all forecasts and alerts are tailored precisely to your operational thresholds.

By accurately reflecting your school's parameters, the instrument helps you make informed decisions that align with your established procedures and the specific needs of your students. This precision in setting and monitoring limits is essential for maintaining consistent operational standards and for communicating clearly with your team and customers.

The instrument maintains a dated record page of what was forecast, what was observed, the limit you used, and the call you made. This record is important for several reasons in your line of work, providing a clear and verifiable history of your operational decisions.

Firstly, it provides a transparent audit trail for your decisions. If a customer questions a cancellation, you can share this frozen record page with them, demonstrating that your decision was based on objective forecast data exceeding your student limit. This transparency helps maintain customer trust and understanding, showing that your actions are data-driven and not arbitrary.

Secondly, this record is valuable for internal review and for any inquiries from insurers or governing bodies. It shows due diligence in assessing conditions and making appropriate operational calls. It helps you track your hit rate on cancel/run calls over a season, providing insights for future planning and refinement of your decision-making processes. This record helps you justify your actions and protect your school's reputation, offering concrete evidence of your adherence to operational policies.

Ireland's coastal environment, particularly with its Atlantic exposure, means that wind conditions can be highly variable and challenging, especially during the storm season from October to March. For windsurf, kitesurf, and wingfoil schools, the peak season typically runs from May to September, when conditions are generally more favourable for lessons and rentals, though vigilance is always required.

However, even during peak season, sudden changes in wind speed and gusts are common. Met Éireann, as the national forecaster, provides general meteorological information, but your operations require more specific, localised data at your exact working height. The instrument addresses this need directly by providing highly localised and height-specific wind forecasts.

The ability to monitor wind at your specific working height and receive alerts when conditions approach or exceed your limits is particularly useful in the dynamic Irish climate. This allows you to make timely decisions, ensuring student well-being and operational efficiency, regardless of the season. It provides the precise information needed to navigate Ireland's often unpredictable weather patterns, supporting your daily operational planning and execution.