Paragliding, hang-gliding and paramotor pilots (IHPA): the wind call, at your height

As an individual pilot or club site officer, you make the call on whether to fly, and which site to use, based on wind strength, gusts, and direction at launch and ridge height. This decision is made every flying day. A wrong call can mean a wasted trip, which is a significant hazard. While no Irish accident statistics are compiled for wind-related incidents, they are recognised as the main hazard class.

Your decision is critical for your own flying and for the well-being of others at the site. It requires accurate and height-specific wind information. The Wind Agent provides wind data at 10, 80, 120, and 180 metres, interpolated to your working height, with gusts shown alongside the mean wind speed. This allows you to assess the conditions relevant to your specific launch and flying height.

Your individual pilot rating and wing type, along with the site guide, determine your personal wind limits. These limits are not uniform across all sites, as the IHPA Flying Sites Guide does not publish a single limit per site. You must input your own specific limits into the instrument to tailor the forecast to your operational needs. This ensures the information directly supports your decision-making process for each flying day.

For paragliding and hang-gliding, knowing the wind at your specific launch and ridge height is essential. The common 10-metre wind measurement often differs significantly from conditions at 80 metres or higher, where you will be flying. The Wind Agent provides wind forecasts at 10, 80, 120, and 180 metres, and interpolates this data to your precise working height, which you set in metres.

This allows you to see the mean wind speed and gusts at exactly the height relevant to your flight plan. For example, if your launch is at 80 metres above the surrounding terrain, you can set the instrument to show wind conditions at that specific height. This detail helps you understand the wind profile from the ground up to your intended flying altitude.

Comparing gusts beside the mean wind speed is crucial. Your personal wind limit, which you define from your wing's manufacturer guidelines or your own experience, should account for both. The instrument helps you assess whether the forecast wind, including gusts, remains within your operating parameters for the duration of your planned flight. It is your own document and judgement that sets the limit.

The instrument computes the odds, P(above your limit), by the hour. This is the fraction of ensemble members that exceed your set wind limit at 10, 80, 100, and 120 metres. It is not a calibrated certainty, but rather a direct representation of how many modelled scenarios predict conditions above your threshold. This helps you understand the likelihood of encountering winds stronger than your comfort or operational limit.

When 20 per cent of the ensemble members show winds above your limit, it suggests a low but present risk. You might proceed with caution, keeping a close eye on actual conditions. If 50 per cent show winds above your limit, the risk is considerably higher, and you might consider a different site or postpone your flight. At 80 per cent, the odds are strongly against flying within your limits, making a no-fly decision or a site change a prudent choice.

The Agreement Spine feature shows where weather models agree and where they do not. This is distinct from P(above your limit). High agreement among models adds confidence to the forecast, while low agreement suggests more uncertainty, prompting extra caution regardless of the P(above your limit) figure. You use both to inform your decision.

Imagine it is 07:00 and you are planning a flight. You check the forecast for your preferred site. The instrument shows a mean wind of 10 knots at 80 metres for 11:00, with gusts to 15 knots, and a P(above your limit) of 10 per cent. By 13:00, the mean wind is forecast to rise to 15 knots, gusts to 20 knots, and P(above your limit) is 30 per cent. The Agreement Spine indicates good model agreement for the morning, but less certainty for the afternoon.

You note that by 15:00, the mean wind is forecast at 15 knots, gusts to 20 knots, and P(above your limit) is 60 per cent. This suggests a significant chance of exceeding your personal limit later in the day. The forecast direction also shifts from south-west to west-south-west, which might affect your choice of launch.

Considering these odds, you decide to fly in the morning, aiming to be down by 14:00. You also identify an alternative site that faces west-south-west for a potential afternoon flight if the conditions at your primary site become unsuitable. The instrument's hourly detail and odds give you the information to make these dynamic decisions for your flying day.

Your wind limit for paragliding or hang-gliding is a critical threshold that you must set yourself. This limit is not universally published; instead, it derives from your individual pilot rating, the specific characteristics of your wing, and the guidance found in your flying site documents. You will input this limit into the instrument based on your own assessment and experience.

The instrument is preset to 80 metres, which is a common height for launch and ridge flying, but you can adjust this to any height relevant to your flight, such as 10 metres for ground handling or 120 metres for higher ridge soaring. You specify your limit in terms of mean wind speed and gust speed, as both are crucial for operation. For example, you might set a limit of 15 knots for mean wind and 20 knots for gusts.

Once set, the instrument uses this limit to calculate the P(above your limit) by the hour. This provides a direct, personalised assessment of the forecast risk. The instrument does not approve your flight; it provides the data against your own defined limits, supporting your informed decision based on your own document and the competent person on site.

The instrument maintains a dated record page of what was forecast, what was observed, the wind limit you used, and the call you made. This record is essential for several reasons in paragliding and hang-gliding. It provides an objective history of conditions and decisions for each flying day, which can be invaluable for personal learning and club site management.

For an individual pilot, reviewing past forecasts against actual observations helps refine your understanding of local conditions and the accuracy of the models. This can improve your future decision-making, particularly concerning how you interpret the P(above your limit) and model agreement for specific sites. It helps you correlate the forecast with your lived experience of the wind profile.

As a club site officer, this record can be useful for incident review, if ever required, or for general site management discussions. While no specific body formally requests these records in Ireland, having a clear log of decisions based on specific data can support best practices and demonstrate due diligence. It helps you reflect on decisions made in varying conditions and learn from past experiences.

Flying conditions in Ireland are significantly influenced by its Atlantic exposure, leading to variable and often strong winds. The main storm season typically runs from October to March, though significant weather can occur outside these months. Paragliding and hang-gliding are generally more active from spring to autumn, when conditions are more favourable.

Met Éireann is the national forecaster for Ireland, providing essential meteorological information. While the instrument does not directly use Met Éireann data, its underlying models consider the same atmospheric conditions affecting the island. You will find that wind direction is particularly critical in Ireland, given the varied topography and the need to select a site that faces the prevailing wind.

Remember that some sites, such as those in the Wicklow Mountains National Park, may require specific permits, as noted in the IHPA site guide. The instrument helps you assess the wind conditions for these diverse Irish sites, providing height-specific forecasts to aid your decision-making across the country's unique flying landscape.