Inshore fishing skippers (under 12 m, pots/nets/lines): the wind call, at your height

As a skipper-owner, you make a daily decision: whether to go out or stay in. This choice is particularly critical during the fishing season. It hinges on whether the wind will remain workable to haul pots or nets, not just for the day ahead, but for the next two to three days. Your livelihood depends on making this call correctly.

Making the wrong call carries significant risks. If you go out and conditions worsen unexpectedly, you face challenges in working your gear or getting back to port. This can lead to lost equipment or difficult situations at sea. Conversely, if you stay in when conditions would have allowed you to fish, you lose valuable fishing days, directly impacting your income.

Such lost days can affect your monthly quota, especially when adverse weather prevents you from fishing it. The pressure to 'go for it' can be considerable, particularly when days cannot be lost without financial consequence. Therefore, precise and reliable wind information is essential for your operational planning and your financial stability.

Your work happens at sea level, so the wind at 10 metres above the surface is the critical measurement for your operations. The instrument shows wind at 10, 80, 120, and 180 metres, interpolated to your specified working height. It is important to distinguish between mean wind and gusts, as both impact your ability to work.

Gusts are short, sudden increases in wind speed that can make hauling gear difficult or even unworkable. The instrument shows gusts alongside the mean wind speed. Your own document, or your personal judgement, sets the limit for both mean wind and gusts that you consider workable for your vessel and gear. For example, you might set your limit at 20 knots for mean wind and a higher threshold for gusts.

The instrument will show you both, allowing you to assess the conditions against your operational limits. This distinction is vital because even a moderate mean wind can be accompanied by gusts that exceed your comfort or operational limits. Heights below 10 metres are extrapolated below the lowest model level and are badged to indicate this, ensuring you understand the nature of the data.

The instrument shows the probability that the wind will be above your set limit for each hour. This is expressed as P(above your limit) and is computed from ensemble members at 10, 80, 100, and 120 metres. It represents the fraction of ensemble members that predict wind speeds exceeding your limit in that hour, giving you a clear indication of potential risk.

The Agreement Spine shows where weather models agree and where they do not. When models largely agree, you can have more confidence in the forecast. When they diverge, the forecast carries more uncertainty, which you should factor into your decision-making.

For your work, if the P(above your limit) is, for example, 20 per cent, you might proceed with caution, knowing there is a small chance of exceeding your limit. If it is 50 per cent, you might consider delaying or changing your plans, as the risk is substantial. At 80 per cent, you would likely decide to stay in, as the risk of unworkable conditions is high. These percentages are examples, and your action will depend on your own assessment of risk for the day and the cost of a wrong call.

It is an example of a typical day with the instrument.

• 05:00: You wake and check the forecast for the next three days. The instrument shows a 10 per cent chance of wind above your 20-knot limit for tomorrow morning, with models largely agreeing. You decide to prepare to go out.
• 20:00: Before bed, you check the forecast again. An alert pings you: the P(above your limit) for tomorrow morning has risen to 40 per cent. The Agreement Spine shows some models are now predicting stronger winds.
• 21:00: You review the updated forecast. Given the increased odds and the potential for difficult conditions, you decide to delay your departure by a few hours, planning to re-evaluate in the morning.
• 05:00 next day: The P(above your limit) has dropped back to 15 per cent, and the mean wind at 10 metres is forecast to be 12 knots, with gusts to 18 knots. You confirm your decision to go out.
• 14:00: You are back in port, having successfully worked your gear. The conditions were as forecast, remaining below your limit.

Your operational limit for wind speed is a critical input for the instrument. This limit is not set by the instrument itself, but by your own judgement and any operational guidelines you follow. It is the maximum mean wind speed and gust speed you consider workable for your specific vessel and fishing method. This personal limit is paramount for making informed decisions.

The instrument allows you to input your chosen limit, which is then used to calculate P(above your limit) by the hour. For a skipper, this might be 20 knots for mean wind and a higher value for gusts, reflecting your vessel's capabilities and the type of gear you operate. The instrument comes with a preset height of 10 metres for marine applications, reflecting the height most relevant to your work on the water.

You should refer to your own experience, the characteristics of your boat, and any relevant guidelines to determine this value. Once set, the instrument uses this limit consistently to provide relevant forecasts, helping you to assess risk against your own established criteria. This customisation ensures the forecast is directly applicable to your unique operational context.

The instrument keeps a dated record page of what was forecast, what was observed, the limit you used, and the call you made. This record is important for several reasons, offering both practical and analytical benefits for your operations.

Firstly, it allows you to review past decisions and compare forecasts with actual conditions. This helps you to refine your understanding of how wind affects your operations and how well the models perform for your specific fishing grounds. Over time, this builds a valuable personal dataset, improving your future decision-making.

Secondly, this record can be useful if questions arise about your operational decisions. While the instrument does not declare conditions fine to do, having a record of the information you used to make your call can support your actions. It demonstrates a considered approach to managing weather risk, based on available data and your own set limits, which can be important for accountability or future planning discussions.

Ireland's inshore fishing fleet operates in waters significantly exposed to Atlantic weather systems. The storm season, typically running from October to March, brings frequent and often severe wind conditions that directly impact fishing operations. During this period, decisions to go out or stay in become particularly challenging, requiring precise meteorological insight.

Met Éireann, as the national forecaster, provides general marine forecasts, but your operational needs require more precise, height-specific wind information. The instrument helps you assess wind conditions at your working height of 10 metres, providing specific data on mean wind and gusts. This detail is crucial for making informed decisions about your daily activities.

This is particularly relevant for crab and lobster potting in the spring and summer months, when even moderate winds can affect gear deployment and retrieval. Understanding the P(above your limit) for your specific grounds helps you navigate the variable Irish weather, allowing you to make informed decisions daily and manage the risks associated with adverse wind conditions.