What do the five Agreement Spine ticks mean?
Five small ticks under the wind readout rate observation age, model spread, ensemble width, height fidelity and lead time. Filled holds, hollow is weak, ember fails. Here are the exact rules.
ON THIS PAGE
01Where the spine is and how to read it
The agreement spine is a row of five very small horizontal ticks in the inspector, under the wind readout. Each tick can be filled, hollow or ember. Filled means that check holds, hollow means it is weak, and ember means it fails. Next to the ticks the idle caption reads EVIDENCE, NOT CONSENSUS. Hover over a tick, tab to it with the keyboard, or tap it, and the caption changes to the tick name and a line of detail. The order is fixed: Obs age, Model spread, Ensemble IQR, Height fidelity, Lead time. Screen readers get the count of failing checks.
02Obs age
This tick looks at the nearest usable METAR or buoy report within 150 km. It is filled when the report is 30 minutes old or less and not flagged stale. It is hollow from 30 up to 90 minutes. It is ember when the report is older than 90 minutes, flagged stale, or when no station is found at all, in which case the detail says no usable station within 150 km. It does not change when you scrub the time strip, since it describes the latest report. It tells you how much weight the observation line deserves. See observations vs model.
03Model spread
This is the same spread score as the AGREE or SPLIT chip, for the selected hour. It is filled at 70 or more out of 100 and ember below 70. It is hollow when fewer than two models returned data, with the detail showing the coverage out of 3. There is one more rule. If you have set a limit and the ensemble is close to your height, the tick turns ember when the primary forecast and the ensemble median fall on opposite sides of your limit, even if the models agree with each other. The detail then names both values. See the AGREE and SPLIT chip.
04Ensemble IQR
Despite the name, this tick measures the width from P10 to P90 of the ensemble at the selected hour, not the quartiles. It is filled when that width is under 6.7 mph, about 3 m/s, and the detail says tight. It is ember when the width is larger, and the detail says wide. It is also ember when there is no ensemble for that hour, with a note that the ensemble is unavailable or has no members. This tick has no hollow state, and it is not related to your limit. A tight band far from your limit and a tight band on it both show filled. See read the exceedance fan.
05Height fidelity
This tick shows how your working height relates to the model levels at 10, 80, 120 and 180 m. It is filled when your height is within 10 m of one of those levels. It is hollow when your height lies between levels and is interpolated, and the detail says how many metres it is from the nearest level. It is ember when the height is outside 10 to 180 m, where the speed is extrapolated, or unknown. Set the height that matches your asset, and do not move it just to fill the tick. See why the number changes with height.
06Lead time
This tick counts hours from now to the selected hour. It is filled for any hour in the past and for the next 24 hours. It is hollow from 25 to 72 hours, with the detail saying skill is falling. It is ember beyond 72 hours. A past hour reads as a model hindcast, not an observation. Use it with the Model spread tick. A good spread at a long lead time is still more fragile than the same spread tomorrow, since the score itself is already reduced for lead time.
07Reading the five together
One ember tick is a pointer, not a stop sign. Obs age points you to the observation line or to the lack of one. Model spread and Ensemble IQR point you to the exceedance fan and the model chips. Height fidelity points you to the working height field. Lead time points you to the time strip. The spine is evidence about the quality of the inputs, not a score and not a verdict on your limit, which is why it makes no total. The lamp and your own limit remain the comparison.
Questions
What does a filled tick mean?
That check holds on its rule. For example Obs age is filled when the nearest report is 30 minutes old or less, and Lead time is filled up to 24 hours ahead.
What does a hollow tick mean?
It is weak but not failing. Obs age is hollow between 30 and 90 minutes old, Model spread when fewer than two models are available, Height fidelity when your height is interpolated, and Lead time between 25 and 72 hours. Ensemble IQR never shows hollow.
What does an ember tick mean?
That check fails on its rule, such as no station within 150 km, models split, a wide ensemble, a height outside 10 to 180 m, or a lead time over 72 hours. Hover over the tick to read the detail.
Why is my Height fidelity tick ember?
Your working height is below 10 m or above 180 m, so the speed is extrapolated with a log law, or it could not be worked out. Heights inside that range show filled or hollow.
Do the ticks change when I move the time strip?
Model spread, Ensemble IQR and Lead time follow the selected hour. Height fidelity follows the height. Obs age describes the latest station report, so it does not change with the hour.