Ireland wind outlook, week of 3 October 2026
The week ahead shows Fri 9 Oct as the windiest day across most anchor points, with a peak modelled gust of 45 mph at Valentia. Live network data indicates a national mean wind of 5.6 mph.
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The week ahead indicates Fri 9 Oct as the windiest day at seven of the eight anchor points. The highest modelled 10 m gust for the eight points is 45 mph at Valentia, occurring Fri 9 Oct 06:00, FROM SW. The highest member fraction for gusts above 40 mph is 54% at Belmullet, Fri 9 Oct 02:00. The calmest six-hour window among the eight points is 2.2 mph at Roches Point, from Sat 3 Oct 23:00 to 05:00.
The live network currently shows 36 stations reporting, with 36 within 180 minutes. The national mean wind is 5.6 mph. The strongest reported gust is 28.6 mph at M6 buoy.
Measured observations include the M6 buoy reporting 21.2 mph FROM SSW, 52 minutes ago. Belmullet shows 16.2 mph FROM S, 52 minutes ago. Donegal Arpt, DL reports 11.5 mph FROM SSW, 22 minutes ago. These are measured observations, distinct from modelled forecasts. Your own documentation governs all operational limits.
01Right now across Ireland
Stations reporting: 36 (36 within 180 minutes). National mean wind 5.6 mph. Strongest reported gust: 28.6 mph at M6 buoy.
| Station | Source | Mean wind (mph) | FROM | Age (min) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M6 buoy | buoy | 21.2 | SSW | 52 |
| Belmullet | met eireann | 16.2 | S | 52 |
| Donegal Arpt, DL | metar | 11.5 | SSW | 22 |
02Region by region
Malin Head's windiest day is Fri 9 Oct with a 31.4 mph mean, and a peak gust of 43 mph Fri 9 Oct 15:00 FROM WSW. Belmullet's windiest day is Fri 9 Oct with a 23.2 mph mean, and a peak gust of 42.7 mph Fri 9 Oct 00:00 FROM SW. Valentia's windiest day is Fri 9 Oct with a 20.6 mph mean, and a peak gust of 45 mph Fri 9 Oct 06:00 FROM SW. Rosslare's windiest day is Fri 9 Oct with a 24.0 mph mean, and a peak gust of 41.2 mph Fri 9 Oct 06:00 FROM SW. Direction is where wind comes FROM.
| Point | Windiest day | Peak gust (10 m) | Peak P(gust above 40 mph) | Calmest 6 h window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malin Head | Fri 9 Oct, 31.4 mph mean | 43 mph Fri 9 Oct 15:00 FROM WSW | 16% Fri 9 Oct 02:00 | Mon 5 Oct 14:00 to 20:00, 13.0 mph |
| Belmullet | Fri 9 Oct, 23.2 mph mean | 42.7 mph Fri 9 Oct 00:00 FROM SW | 54% Fri 9 Oct 02:00 | Mon 5 Oct 19:00 to 01:00, 7.6 mph |
| Valentia | Fri 9 Oct, 20.6 mph mean | 45 mph Fri 9 Oct 06:00 FROM SW | 28% Fri 9 Oct 10:00 | Sun 4 Oct 04:00 to 10:00, 6.6 mph |
| Roches Point | Fri 9 Oct, 14.3 mph mean | 37.1 mph Fri 9 Oct 06:00 FROM SW | 2% Fri 9 Oct 03:00 | Sat 3 Oct 23:00 to 05:00, 2.2 mph |
| Dublin | Fri 9 Oct, 17.7 mph mean | 36.5 mph Fri 9 Oct 01:00 FROM WSW | 9% Fri 9 Oct 02:00 | Sat 3 Oct 19:00 to 01:00, 3.8 mph |
| Shannon | Fri 9 Oct, 13.2 mph mean | 31.3 mph Fri 9 Oct 06:00 FROM SW | 5% Fri 9 Oct 10:00 | Tue 6 Oct 22:00 to 04:00, 3.8 mph |
| Rosslare | Fri 9 Oct, 24.0 mph mean | 41.2 mph Fri 9 Oct 06:00 FROM SW | 20% Fri 9 Oct 10:00 | Sat 3 Oct 19:00 to 01:00, 3.2 mph |
| Donegal Bay | Sun 4 Oct, 18.8 mph mean | 38.3 mph Fri 9 Oct 13:00 FROM W | 10% Fri 9 Oct 10:00 | Tue 6 Oct 04:00 to 10:00, 3.2 mph |
03Windsurf, kite and surf days
Brandon Bay for kite activity meets the example rule of 15 to 30 mph FROM SW/W/S on Sun 4 Oct for 4 h with 16 mph SSW, Thu 8 Oct for 10 h with 21 mph WSW, and Fri 9 Oct for 8 h with 18 mph W. Lough Derg for windsurf activity meets the example rule of 15 to 30 mph FROM SW/W/S on Thu 8 Oct for 5 h with 16 mph WSW, and Fri 9 Oct for 4 h with 17 mph WSW. Tramore for surf activity meets the example rule of 4 to 18 mph FROM N/NW/NE on Tue 6 Oct for 10 h with 12 mph N, and Wed 7 Oct for 10 h with 10 mph NW. Compare these with your own limits.
| Spot | Activity | Example rule, 09:00 to 18:00, gust 40 mph or less | Days meeting it (4 h or more) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bay | kite | 15 to 30 mph FROM SW/W/S | Sun 4 Oct 4 h 16 mph SSW; Thu 8 Oct 10 h 21 mph WSW; Fri 9 Oct 8 h 18 mph W |
| Dollymount Strand | kite | 15 to 30 mph FROM E/NE/SE | none |
| Lough Derg (windsurf) | windsurf | 15 to 30 mph FROM SW/W/S | Thu 8 Oct 5 h 16 mph WSW; Fri 9 Oct 4 h 17 mph WSW |
| Rosslare Strand | kite | 15 to 30 mph FROM SE/E/S | none |
| Lahinch | surf | 4 to 18 mph FROM E/SE/NE | none |
| Tramore | surf | 4 to 18 mph FROM N/NW/NE | Tue 6 Oct 10 h 12 mph N; Wed 7 Oct 10 h 10 mph NW |
04Farm spray windows
For the Shannon area, a window of 10 h from 11:00 to 21:00 on Tue 6 Oct shows a mean wind of 7.3 mph and a mean delta-T of 3.9 C. Another window for the Shannon area on Wed 7 Oct, from 16:00 to 21:00 for 5 h, shows a mean wind of 7.1 mph and a mean delta-T of 3.5 C. For the Dublin area, a window of 9 h from 12:00 to 21:00 on Tue 6 Oct shows a mean wind of 7.6 mph and a mean delta-T of 4.1 C. Your own documentation governs operational limits.
| Area | Day | Longest window | Mean wind | Mean delta-T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon area | Tue 6 Oct | 11:00 to 21:00 (10 h) | 7.3 mph | 3.9 C |
| Shannon area | Wed 7 Oct | 16:00 to 21:00 (5 h) | 7.1 mph | 3.5 C |
| Rosslare area | none | |||
| Dublin area | Tue 6 Oct | 12:00 to 21:00 (9 h) | 7.6 mph | 4.1 C |
05Crane WATCH days
WATCH days for Malin Head, with at least 25% probability of gust above 28 mph, are Thu 8 Oct at 66% and Fri 9 Oct at 88%. Belmullet has WATCH days on Sun 4 Oct at 100% and Fri 9 Oct at 98%. Valentia has WATCH days on Thu 8 Oct at 61% and Fri 9 Oct at 79%. Dublin has WATCH days on Thu 8 Oct at 38% and Fri 9 Oct at 70%. Shannon has WATCH days on Thu 8 Oct at 38% and Fri 9 Oct at 59%. Rosslare has WATCH days on Thu 8 Oct at 40% and Fri 9 Oct at 79%. These are member fractions, not calibrated certainty. Your own documentation governs operational limits.
| Point | WATCH days (top two by peak P of gust above 28 mph; listed if at least 25%) |
|---|---|
| Malin Head | Thu 8 Oct 66%, Fri 9 Oct 88% |
| Belmullet | Sun 4 Oct 100%, Fri 9 Oct 98% |
| Valentia | Thu 8 Oct 61%, Fri 9 Oct 79% |
| Roches Point | Thu 8 Oct 32%, Fri 9 Oct 49% |
| Dublin | Thu 8 Oct 38%, Fri 9 Oct 70% |
| Shannon | Thu 8 Oct 38%, Fri 9 Oct 59% |
| Rosslare | Thu 8 Oct 40%, Fri 9 Oct 79% |
| Donegal Bay | Thu 8 Oct 54%, Fri 9 Oct 79% |
06Long-run context
Return levels from 36 years of ERA5 reanalysis (Gumbel fit). They describe the climate of the point, not this week's forecast.
| Point | 1-in-2-year gust (mph) | 1-in-50-year gust (mph) |
|---|---|---|
| Malin Head | 77.2 | 101.1 |
| Valentia | 81.5 | 102.7 |
| Dublin | 65.8 | 84.2 |
07How this outlook is made
Every number is computed by code from Met Éireann, METAR and Marine Institute observations and the GEFS, ECMWF IFS ENS and ICON-EPS ensembles. A language model only narrates them and is rejected if it adds a number. Percentages are uncalibrated member fractions, gusts are 10 m values, direction is where the wind comes FROM, and missing data is unknown, never zero.
Questions
Where is the strongest modelled gust in Ireland this week?
Among the eight anchor points in this outlook, the highest modelled 10 m gust is 45 mph at Valentia, on Fri 9 Oct at 06:00. It is a model value for a grid point, not a station measurement.
What is the strongest gust being reported across Ireland right now?
The strongest gust in the live network at the time of writing is 28.6 mph at M6 buoy. Observations come from Met Éireann, METAR reports and Marine Institute buoys, so heights and averaging periods differ.
What does the percentage for gusts above 40 mph mean?
It is the fraction of ensemble members (GEFS, ECMWF IFS ENS and ICON-EPS) that reach the threshold in that hour. It is an uncalibrated member fraction, not a calibrated probability, and it describes a 10 m gust.
Are the windsurf, kite and spray days a recommendation?
No. They list days that meet an example rule written in the table, so you can compare them with your own limit, product label or instructor guidance. Local knowledge, signage and lifeguards come first.
SOURCES
Modelled forecasts are planning support, not on-site measurement. Thresholds are commonly cited figures, attributed to their source — never statutory limits.