Insurers and loss adjusters: the wind call, at your height

As a Claims Manager, Underwriting Analyst, or Loss Adjuster, you frequently need to establish the wind conditions at a specific address for a particular date. This is critical for assessing claims related to property damage or for underwriting decisions regarding event clauses. The decision is made per claim and per storm, requiring precise information.

Your work involves setting event definitions and underwriting events based on the actual wind conditions. A wrong assessment of wind conditions can lead to incorrect claim payouts, impacting profitability and customer satisfaction. It is essential to have verifiable data to support your findings.

Your primary concern is to prove what the wind was at the insured address on the day of an incident. This evidence forms a crucial part of an evidence pack attached to a claim. The data must be auditable and of quality to withstand scrutiny.

Accurate wind data helps you flag clients who might have ignored warnings, providing a basis for policy adherence discussions. The instrument provides the objective wind conditions, allowing you to focus on the policy wording and event clauses.

For insurance claims and underwriting, the relevant wind measurement is typically the gust at 10 metres above ground level at the insured address. This height is commonly used for ground-level structures and is often referenced in policy wordings and event clauses. The instrument provides wind data interpolated to this specific working height.

Gusts are short-duration peaks in wind speed, which often cause the most significant damage to property. The instrument presents these gusts alongside the mean wind speed. For your work, understanding the maximum gust experienced at the property is usually more important than the average wind speed over a longer period.

Your policy wording and event clauses set the specific wind speed limit that defines an insurable event. This limit is not set by the instrument but is entered by you, based on your documentation. The instrument then helps you determine if the wind conditions at the time of an incident met or exceeded this threshold.

By focusing on the gust at 10 metres, you can align your assessment with the common standards used in property insurance. This ensures that your analysis is directly relevant to the type of damage typically covered by policies.

The instrument calculates the probability (P(above your limit)) that wind speeds will exceed a limit you set, presented by the hour. This probability is derived from an ensemble of weather model members. It shows the fraction of these members that predict wind speeds above your specified threshold.

Model agreement is shown by the Agreement Spine, indicating where different weather models align or diverge in their predictions. High agreement suggests a more consistent forecast across various models, while divergence indicates greater uncertainty.

When assessing a potential claim or underwriting an event, you might interpret these odds differently based on the stage of your work:

• 20 per cent P(above your limit): This might suggest a low likelihood of an event, but still warrants monitoring for sensitive cases or high-value properties.
• 50 per cent P(above your limit): This indicates an even chance. At this level, you might prepare for potential claims, initiate early investigations, or alert policyholders in high-risk areas.
• 80 per cent P(above your limit): This suggests a high likelihood that the wind limit will be exceeded. This would trigger immediate action, such as detailed claim preparation, or a review of underwriting exposure for a specific storm event.

This probabilistic view helps you anticipate and manage risk more effectively, allowing for proactive measures rather than purely reactive responses.

Imagine it is October 2026. You are assessing a claim for property damage reported on October 2026.

• 09:00: You access the instrument for the insured address. You set the working height to 10 metres and the metric to gust. You enter the wind speed limit from the policy wording, for example, 90 km/h. The instrument shows the forecast for October 2026 and the observed wind conditions.
• 10:30: You review the P(above your limit) for the period of the alleged damage. For 14:00 on October 2026, the instrument shows 70 per cent P(above your limit). This indicates a high probability that the gust exceeded 90 km/h at that time.
• 11:15: You examine the Agreement Spine for that period. It shows good agreement among the models for gusts exceeding the limit, reinforcing the forecast's reliability.
• 13:00: You check the recorded observations for October 2026. The instrument shows a peak gust of 98 km/h at 14:20 at the insured address. This observation confirms the forecast and the policy limit was exceeded.
• 15:00: You attach the dated record page from the instrument to the claim file as part of your evidence pack. This record clearly shows what was forecast, what was observed, the limit used, and the call made based on this data.

The wind speed limit you use in the instrument is derived directly from your own policy wording and event clauses. These documents specify the conditions under which an event is defined for insurance purposes. You will manually input this specific wind speed into the instrument.

For example, if a policy states that an event is triggered when gusts exceed 90 km/h at 10 metres, you would enter '90' as your limit. The instrument is preset to 10 metres and gust at address, aligning with common insurance standards for property claims. This ensures that the analysis directly reflects the terms of your policies.

This approach ensures that all assessments are consistent with your internal guidelines and legal obligations. The instrument does not set or suggest limits; it merely applies your specified limit to its wind data. Your decision-making process remains entirely within your control and based on your established criteria.

Having a clear, documented limit and applying it consistently through the instrument provides a robust framework for assessing claims and managing underwriting risk. It provides a verifiable basis for your decisions, which is crucial for auditing and dispute resolution.

The instrument maintains a dated record page of what was forecast and observed for any given location and time. This record includes the wind limit you used and the call you made based on that data. This frozen record page is a critical component for your work.

In the insurance sector, auditors, legal teams, and other stakeholders frequently request detailed evidence to support claim assessments or underwriting decisions. This record page serves as an immutable, auditable document that can be attached directly to a claim file or used in legal proceedings. It provides transparent proof of the wind conditions at the time of an incident.

As a Claims Manager or Loss Adjuster, you need to prove what the wind was at the insured address on the day. This record provides that proof. It allows you to build an evidence pack for each claim, demonstrating due diligence and objective assessment. It also helps in flagging clients who might have ignored warnings, by providing a verifiable timeline of wind conditions.

For Underwriting Analysts, the history by address for a named storm, captured in these records, can inform future risk assessments and policy development. The ability to retrieve and present this historical data is invaluable for defending decisions and ensuring adherence to policy.

Ireland experiences a highly dynamic wind climate, largely due to its exposure to the Atlantic Ocean. This leads to frequent storm activity, particularly during the storm season from October to March. These storms can cause significant property damage, leading to numerous insurance claims.

Met Éireann, as the national forecaster, provides general meteorological information, but for specific claim assessments, you need hyper-local data. The instrument provides this localised wind data, interpolated to the precise address and working height, which is essential for accurate claim evaluation in Ireland's varied weather conditions.

Storm events in Ireland can be very costly for insurers. For example, a recent storm set a record for insured losses in Ireland. Accurate, verifiable wind data is crucial for managing the financial impact of such events, both in terms of claims processing and future underwriting strategies.

Given the frequent and impactful nature of storms, having a reliable source for historical and forecast wind data is a significant advantage for Irish insurers and loss adjusters. This helps in understanding the context of claims and in making informed decisions about risk.